St. Louis Cardinals vs Philadelphia Phillies

Match Context

St. Louis Cardinals come into this game at 74-67, on a 1-game winning streak. Philadelphia Phillies sit at 72-71, on a 2-game winning streak.

Philadelphia Phillies carry a 1531.1 Elo rating to St. Louis Cardinals's 1506.2, a gap of 25.0 points.

These two have met 41 times in the data this model was trained on, with Philadelphia Phillies winning 24 to St. Louis Cardinals's 17.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from this season's actual game results -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

St. Louis Cardinals win: 43.0%

Philadelphia Phillies win: 57.0%

Predicted winner: Philadelphia Phillies

Total Runs

Over 8.5

Model confidence: 50.9%

St. Louis Cardinals: Under 4.5 (53.2%) · Philadelphia Phillies: Under 4.5 (51.5%)

Total Hits

17.1

St. Louis Cardinals: 8.08 · Philadelphia Phillies: 8.99

Home Runs

2.36

St. Louis Cardinals: 1.0 · Philadelphia Phillies: 1.36

Strikeouts

17.0

St. Louis Cardinals: 8.8 · Philadelphia Phillies: 8.23

Form & Streak

St. Louis Cardinals: 74-67 this season, won 1 straight

Philadelphia Phillies: 72-71 this season, won 2 straight

Elo Rating

St. Louis Cardinals: 1506.2 · Philadelphia Phillies: 1531.1

Head-to-Head

Philadelphia Phillies 24 – 17 St. Louis Cardinals (41 meetings)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (PHI 57% / SLN 43%). Underdog SLN is live — winner markets are noisy in MLB; prefer totals, team runs, hits, or Ks.

PHI is favoured on team strength -- rated 25 Elo points higher than SLN based on results over the last several seasons.

PHI leads the head-to-head series 24-17 across their last 41 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.