← Back to fixtures

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Pittsburgh Pirates

Win Probability

Arizona Diamondbacks win: 54.9%

Pittsburgh Pirates win: 45.1%

Predicted winner: Arizona Diamondbacks

Total Runs

9.6

Likely range: 8.1 – 11.1

Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.74 · Pittsburgh Pirates: 4.9

Total Hits

16.4

Arizona Diamondbacks: 8.16 · Pittsburgh Pirates: 8.2

Home Runs

2.06

Arizona Diamondbacks: 1.08 · Pittsburgh Pirates: 0.98

Strikeouts

16.9

Arizona Diamondbacks: 8.6 · Pittsburgh Pirates: 8.32

Form & Streak

Arizona Diamondbacks: 63-61 this season, won 2 straight

Pittsburgh Pirates: 63-61 this season, won 1 straight

Elo Rating

Arizona Diamondbacks: 1508.7 · Pittsburgh Pirates: 1493.0

Head-to-Head

Pittsburgh Pirates 16 – 25 Arizona Diamondbacks (41 meetings)

Prediction Insights

ARI is favoured on team strength -- rated 16 Elo points higher than PIT based on results over the last several seasons.

ARI leads the head-to-head series 25-16 across their last 41 meetings.

Both offenses are trending hot and neither pitching staff has been stingy lately -- projected total of 9.6 runs leans toward a high-scoring game.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.