← Back to fixtures

Arizona Diamondbacks vs Washington Nationals

Win Probability

Arizona Diamondbacks win: 54.3%

Washington Nationals win: 45.7%

Predicted winner: Arizona Diamondbacks

Total Runs

9.9

Likely range: 8.4 – 11.4

Arizona Diamondbacks: 4.91 · Washington Nationals: 4.98

Total Hits

17.3

Arizona Diamondbacks: 8.94 · Washington Nationals: 8.34

Home Runs

2.45

Arizona Diamondbacks: 1.33 · Washington Nationals: 1.12

Strikeouts

16.5

Arizona Diamondbacks: 8.12 · Washington Nationals: 8.39

Form & Streak

Arizona Diamondbacks: 63-61 this season, won 2 straight

Washington Nationals: 61-61 this season, won 1 straight

Elo Rating

Arizona Diamondbacks: 1508.7 · Washington Nationals: 1475.7

Head-to-Head

Washington Nationals 18 – 24 Arizona Diamondbacks (42 meetings)

Prediction Insights

ARI is favoured on team strength -- rated 33 Elo points higher than WAS based on results over the last several seasons.

ARI leads the head-to-head series 24-18 across their last 42 meetings.

Both offenses are trending hot and neither pitching staff has been stingy lately -- projected total of 9.9 runs leans toward a high-scoring game.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- MLB has very high inherent variance (even a 100-win team loses ~35% of its games), and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/educational use only; this is not betting advice.