DAL vs ARI
Match Context
DAL come into this game at 5-7, on a 3-game losing streak. ARI sit at 5-11, on a 1-game winning streak.
ARI carry a 1441.3 Elo rating to DAL's 1479.8, a gap of 38.0 points.
These two haven't met in the data this model was trained on, so the prediction is Elo-and-form-only, with no head-to-head input.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
DAL win: 47.3%
ARI win: 52.7%
Predicted winner: ARI
Total Points
Under 50.5
Model confidence: 51.2%
DAL: Over 25.5 (50.2%) · ARI: Over 24.5 (50.2%)
Spread
ARI -0.5
Model confidence: 45.5%
Home line: ARI -0.5
Form & Streak
DAL: 5-7 this sample, lost 3 straight
ARI: 5-11 this sample, won 1 straight
Elo Rating
DAL: 1479.8 · ARI: 1441.3
Head-to-Head
No previous meetings on record -- prediction is Elo-only.
Prediction Insights
This is a coin-flip moneyline (ARI 53% / DAL 47%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.
Projected total of 50.1 points leans toward a high-scoring game.
Model spread: ARI -0.5 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.