PHI vs BAL
Match Context
PHI come into this game at 9-4, on a 2-game winning streak. BAL sit at 8-4, on a 1-game winning streak.
BAL carry a 1529.6 Elo rating to PHI's 1538.4, a gap of 9.0 points.
These two haven't met in the data this model was trained on, so the prediction is Elo-and-form-only, with no head-to-head input.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
PHI win: 43.8%
BAL win: 56.2%
Predicted winner: BAL
Total Points
Under 43.5
Model confidence: 50.6%
PHI: Over 20.5 (50.4%) · BAL: Over 22.5 (50.7%)
Spread
BAL -2
Model confidence: 50.2%
Home line: BAL -2.0
Form & Streak
PHI: 9-4 this sample, won 2 straight
BAL: 8-4 this sample, won 1 straight
Elo Rating
PHI: 1538.4 · BAL: 1529.6
Head-to-Head
No previous meetings on record -- prediction is Elo-only.
Prediction Insights
This is a coin-flip moneyline (BAL 56% / PHI 44%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.
Model spread: BAL -2 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.