ARI vs GB

Match Context

ARI come into this game at 5-11, on a 1-game winning streak. GB sit at 8-6, on a 3-game losing streak.

GB carry a 1517.1 Elo rating to ARI's 1441.3, a gap of 76.0 points.

These two haven't met in the data this model was trained on, so the prediction is Elo-and-form-only, with no head-to-head input.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

ARI win: 34.4%

GB win: 65.6%

Predicted winner: GB

Total Points

Over 42.5

Model confidence: 51.2%

ARI: Over 19.5 (50.8%) · GB: Under 23.5 (51.2%)

Spread

GB -5

Model confidence: 45.6%

Home line: GB -5.0

Form & Streak

ARI: 5-11 this sample, won 1 straight

GB: 8-6 this sample, lost 3 straight

Elo Rating

ARI: 1441.3 · GB: 1517.1

Head-to-Head

No previous meetings on record -- prediction is Elo-only.

Prediction Insights

GB is favoured on team strength — rated 76 Elo points higher than ARI from recent completed games.

GB is on form, having lost 3 straight.

Model spread: GB -5 (home-field Elo folded in).

Educational estimate — not betting advice.