Atlanta Falcons vs Indianapolis Colts
Match Context
Atlanta Falcons come into this game at 5-9, on a 2-game winning streak. Indianapolis Colts sit at 5-6, on a 4-game losing streak.
Indianapolis Colts carry a 1493.9 Elo rating to Atlanta Falcons's 1470.2, a gap of 24.0 points.
These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with Indianapolis Colts winning 1 to Atlanta Falcons's 0.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
Atlanta Falcons win: 37.6%
Indianapolis Colts win: 62.4%
Predicted winner: Indianapolis Colts
Total Points
Under 45.5
Model confidence: 51.5%
Atlanta Falcons: Over 20.5 (50.4%) · Indianapolis Colts: Under 24.5 (50.6%)
Spread
IND -3
Model confidence: 52.2%
Home line: Indianapolis Colts -3.0
Form & Streak
Atlanta Falcons: 5-9 this sample, won 2 straight
Indianapolis Colts: 5-6 this sample, lost 4 straight
Elo Rating
Atlanta Falcons: 1470.2 · Indianapolis Colts: 1493.9
Head-to-Head
Indianapolis Colts 1 – 0 Atlanta Falcons (1 meeting)
Prediction Insights
IND is on form, having lost 4 straight.
Model spread: IND -3 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.