San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers
Match Context
San Francisco 49ers come into this game at 9-3, on a 1-game losing streak. Los Angeles Chargers sit at 11-3, on a 5-game winning streak.
Los Angeles Chargers carry a 1572.5 Elo rating to San Francisco 49ers's 1546.3, a gap of 26.0 points.
These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with Los Angeles Chargers winning 0 to San Francisco 49ers's 1.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
San Francisco 49ers win: 43.2%
Los Angeles Chargers win: 56.8%
Predicted winner: Los Angeles Chargers
Total Points
Over 42.5
Model confidence: 50.0%
San Francisco 49ers: Under 20.5 (50.8%) · Los Angeles Chargers: Under 22.5 (51.0%)
Spread
LAC -3
Model confidence: 46.9%
Home line: Los Angeles Chargers -3.0
Form & Streak
San Francisco 49ers: 9-3 this sample, lost 1 straight
Los Angeles Chargers: 11-3 this sample, won 5 straight
Elo Rating
San Francisco 49ers: 1546.3 · Los Angeles Chargers: 1572.5
Head-to-Head
Los Angeles Chargers 0 – 1 San Francisco 49ers (1 meeting)
Prediction Insights
This is a coin-flip moneyline (LAC 57% / SF 43%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.
LAC is on form, having won 5 straight.
Model spread: LAC -3 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.