IND vs NE

Match Context

IND come into this game at 5-6, on a 4-game losing streak. NE sit at 7-4, on a 1-game losing streak.

NE carry a 1522.8 Elo rating to IND's 1493.9, a gap of 29.0 points.

These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with NE winning 0 to IND's 1.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

IND win: 43.5%

NE win: 56.5%

Predicted winner: NE

Total Points

Over 45.5

Model confidence: 51.2%

IND: Under 23.5 (51.6%) · NE: Over 22.5 (51.4%)

Spread

NE -3.5

Model confidence: 39.1%

Home line: NE -3.5

Form & Streak

IND: 5-6 this sample, lost 4 straight

NE: 7-4 this sample, lost 1 straight

Elo Rating

IND: 1493.9 · NE: 1522.8

Head-to-Head

NE 0 – 1 IND (1 meeting)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (NE 56% / IND 44%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.

Model spread: NE -3.5 (home-field Elo folded in).

Educational estimate — not betting advice.