Indianapolis Colts vs New England Patriots
Match Context
Indianapolis Colts come into this game at 5-6, on a 4-game losing streak. New England Patriots sit at 7-4, on a 1-game losing streak.
New England Patriots carry a 1522.8 Elo rating to Indianapolis Colts's 1493.9, a gap of 29.0 points.
These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with New England Patriots winning 0 to Indianapolis Colts's 1.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
Indianapolis Colts win: 43.3%
New England Patriots win: 56.7%
Predicted winner: New England Patriots
Total Points
Over 45.5
Model confidence: 51.2%
Indianapolis Colts: Under 23.5 (51.6%) · New England Patriots: Over 22.5 (51.4%)
Spread
NE -3.5
Model confidence: 39.1%
Home line: New England Patriots -3.5
Form & Streak
Indianapolis Colts: 5-6 this sample, lost 4 straight
New England Patriots: 7-4 this sample, lost 1 straight
Elo Rating
Indianapolis Colts: 1493.9 · New England Patriots: 1522.8
Head-to-Head
New England Patriots 0 – 1 Indianapolis Colts (1 meeting)
Prediction Insights
This is a coin-flip moneyline (NE 57% / IND 43%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.
Model spread: NE -3.5 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.