PHI vs NE
Match Context
PHI come into this game at 9-4, on a 2-game winning streak. NE sit at 7-4, on a 1-game losing streak.
NE carry a 1522.8 Elo rating to PHI's 1538.4, a gap of 16.0 points.
These two haven't met in the data this model was trained on, so the prediction is Elo-and-form-only, with no head-to-head input.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
PHI win: 45.2%
NE win: 54.8%
Predicted winner: NE
Total Points
Under 43.5
Model confidence: 51.2%
PHI: Over 21.5 (51.0%) · NE: Under 21.5 (50.8%)
Spread
NE -1.5
Model confidence: 44.2%
Home line: NE -1.5
Form & Streak
PHI: 9-4 this sample, won 2 straight
NE: 7-4 this sample, lost 1 straight
Elo Rating
PHI: 1538.4 · NE: 1522.8
Head-to-Head
No previous meetings on record -- prediction is Elo-only.
Prediction Insights
This is a coin-flip moneyline (NE 55% / PHI 45%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.
Model spread: NE -1.5 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.