PHI vs NE

Match Context

PHI come into this game at 9-4, on a 2-game winning streak. NE sit at 7-4, on a 1-game losing streak.

NE carry a 1522.8 Elo rating to PHI's 1538.4, a gap of 16.0 points.

These two haven't met in the data this model was trained on, so the prediction is Elo-and-form-only, with no head-to-head input.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

PHI win: 45.2%

NE win: 54.8%

Predicted winner: NE

Total Points

Under 43.5

Model confidence: 51.2%

PHI: Over 21.5 (51.0%) · NE: Under 21.5 (50.8%)

Spread

NE -1.5

Model confidence: 44.2%

Home line: NE -1.5

Form & Streak

PHI: 9-4 this sample, won 2 straight

NE: 7-4 this sample, lost 1 straight

Elo Rating

PHI: 1538.4 · NE: 1522.8

Head-to-Head

No previous meetings on record -- prediction is Elo-only.

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (NE 55% / PHI 45%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.

Model spread: NE -1.5 (home-field Elo folded in).

Educational estimate — not betting advice.