JAX vs NO
Match Context
JAX come into this game at 8-4, on a 6-game winning streak. NO sit at 4-7, on a 3-game winning streak.
NO carry a 1474.6 Elo rating to JAX's 1541.3, a gap of 67.0 points.
These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with NO winning 0 to JAX's 1.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
JAX win: 56.5%
NO win: 43.5%
Predicted winner: JAX
Total Points
Under 42.5
Model confidence: 50.3%
JAX: Under 24.5 (51.0%) · NO: Under 18.5 (51.4%)
Spread
JAX -0.5
Model confidence: 66.1%
Home line: NO 0.5
Form & Streak
JAX: 8-4 this sample, won 6 straight
NO: 4-7 this sample, won 3 straight
Elo Rating
JAX: 1541.3 · NO: 1474.6
Head-to-Head
NO 0 – 1 JAX (1 meeting)
Prediction Insights
This is a coin-flip moneyline (JAX 57% / NO 43%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.
JAX is favoured on team strength — rated 67 Elo points higher than NO from recent completed games.
JAX is on form, having won 6 straight.
Model spread: JAX -0.5 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.