NYG vs NYJ

Match Context

NYG come into this game at 3-9, on a 9-game losing streak. NYJ sit at 3-10, on a 3-game losing streak.

NYJ carry a 1442.5 Elo rating to NYG's 1438.7, a gap of 4.0 points.

These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with NYJ winning 0 to NYG's 1.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

NYG win: 45.9%

NYJ win: 54.1%

Predicted winner: NYJ

Total Points

Over 46.5

Model confidence: 50.9%

NYG: Under 25.5 (51.1%) · NYJ: Over 21.5 (50.1%)

Spread

NYJ -2.5

Model confidence: 32.3%

Home line: NYJ -2.5

Form & Streak

NYG: 3-9 this sample, lost 9 straight

NYJ: 3-10 this sample, lost 3 straight

Elo Rating

NYG: 1438.7 · NYJ: 1442.5

Head-to-Head

NYJ 0 – 1 NYG (1 meeting)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (NYJ 54% / NYG 46%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.

NYJ is on form, having lost 3 straight.

Model spread: NYJ -2.5 (home-field Elo folded in).

Educational estimate — not betting advice.