TB vs NYJ
Match Context
TB come into this game at 6-7, on a 3-game losing streak. NYJ sit at 3-10, on a 3-game losing streak.
NYJ carry a 1442.5 Elo rating to TB's 1478.6, a gap of 36.0 points.
These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with NYJ winning 0 to TB's 1.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
TB win: 51.4%
NYJ win: 48.6%
Predicted winner: TB
Total Points
Under 46.5
Model confidence: 51.5%
TB: Over 24.5 (51.2%) · NYJ: Under 21.5 (51.2%)
Spread
NYJ -1
Model confidence: 36.6%
Home line: NYJ -1.0
Form & Streak
TB: 6-7 this sample, lost 3 straight
NYJ: 3-10 this sample, lost 3 straight
Elo Rating
TB: 1478.6 · NYJ: 1442.5
Head-to-Head
NYJ 0 – 1 TB (1 meeting)
Prediction Insights
This is a coin-flip moneyline (TB 51% / NYJ 49%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.
TB is on form, having lost 3 straight.
Model spread: NYJ -1 (home-field Elo folded in).
Educational estimate — not betting advice.