MIA vs WSH

Match Context

MIA come into this game at 6-5, on a 2-game losing streak. WSH sit at 3-10, on a 1-game losing streak.

WSH carry a 1439.1 Elo rating to MIA's 1504.2, a gap of 65.0 points.

These two have met 1 time in the data this model was trained on, with WSH winning 0 to MIA's 1.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from recent completed games -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

MIA win: 54.8%

WSH win: 45.2%

Predicted winner: MIA

Total Points

Over 45.5

Model confidence: 50.9%

MIA: Over 24.5 (51.1%) · WSH: Over 20.5 (51.9%)

Spread

MIA -0.5

Model confidence: 59.7%

Home line: WSH 0.5

Form & Streak

MIA: 6-5 this sample, lost 2 straight

WSH: 3-10 this sample, lost 1 straight

Elo Rating

MIA: 1504.2 · WSH: 1439.1

Head-to-Head

WSH 0 – 1 MIA (1 meeting)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (MIA 55% / WSH 45%). NFL winners are noisy — prefer totals or the spread.

MIA is favoured on team strength — rated 65 Elo points higher than WSH from recent completed games.

Model spread: MIA -0.5 (home-field Elo folded in).

Educational estimate — not betting advice.