Hanshin Tigers vs Tokyo Yakult Swallows

2026-08-02T18:00:00

Match Context

Hanshin Tigers come into this game at 50-32, on a 2-game winning streak. Tokyo Yakult Swallows sit at 39-44, on a 2-game losing streak.

Tokyo Yakult Swallows carry a 1467.3 Elo rating to Hanshin Tigers's 1564.4, a gap of 97.0 points.

These two have met 214 times in the data this model was trained on, with Tokyo Yakult Swallows winning 86 to Hanshin Tigers's 128.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from this season's actual game results -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

Hanshin Tigers win: 56.9%

Tokyo Yakult Swallows win: 43.1%

Predicted winner: Hanshin Tigers

Total Runs

Under 7.5

Model confidence: 53.9%

Hanshin Tigers: Under 4.5 (56.8%) · Tokyo Yakult Swallows: Under 3.5 (56.0%)

Form & Streak

Hanshin Tigers: 50-32 this season, won 2 straight

Tokyo Yakult Swallows: 39-44 this season, lost 2 straight

Elo Rating

Hanshin Tigers: 1564.4 · Tokyo Yakult Swallows: 1467.3

Head-to-Head

Tokyo Yakult Swallows 86 – 128 Hanshin Tigers (214 meetings)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (Hanshin Tigers 57% / Tokyo Yakult Swallows 43%). Underdog Tokyo Yakult Swallows is live — winner markets are noisy in NPB; prefer totals or team runs.

Hanshin Tigers is favoured on team strength -- rated 97 Elo points higher based on results over recent seasons.

Hanshin Tigers leads the head-to-head series 128-86 across their last 214 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- baseball has very high inherent variance, and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.