Hiroshima Toyo Carp vs Yokohama DeNA BayStars

2026-08-08T18:00:00

Match Context

Hiroshima Toyo Carp come into this game at 33-44, on a 5-game losing streak. Yokohama DeNA BayStars sit at 41-40, on a 1-game losing streak.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars carry a 1508.9 Elo rating to Hiroshima Toyo Carp's 1463.8, a gap of 45.0 points.

These two have met 216 times in the data this model was trained on, with Yokohama DeNA BayStars winning 100 to Hiroshima Toyo Carp's 116.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from this season's actual game results -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

Hiroshima Toyo Carp win: 43.3%

Yokohama DeNA BayStars win: 56.7%

Predicted winner: Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Total Runs

Under 7.5

Model confidence: 51.9%

Hiroshima Toyo Carp: Under 3.5 (53.0%) · Yokohama DeNA BayStars: Over 3.5 (56.6%)

Form & Streak

Hiroshima Toyo Carp: 33-44 this season, lost 5 straight

Yokohama DeNA BayStars: 41-40 this season, lost 1 straight

Elo Rating

Hiroshima Toyo Carp: 1463.8 · Yokohama DeNA BayStars: 1508.9

Head-to-Head

Yokohama DeNA BayStars 100 – 116 Hiroshima Toyo Carp (216 meetings)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (Yokohama DeNA BayStars 57% / Hiroshima Toyo Carp 43%). Underdog Hiroshima Toyo Carp is live — winner markets are noisy in NPB; prefer totals or team runs.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars is favoured on team strength -- rated 45 Elo points higher based on results over recent seasons.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- baseball has very high inherent variance, and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.