Tokyo Yakult Swallows vs Chunichi Dragons
2026-08-04T18:00:00
Match Context
Tokyo Yakult Swallows come into this game at 39-44, on a 2-game losing streak. Chunichi Dragons sit at 38-47, on a 1-game winning streak.
Chunichi Dragons carry a 1475.6 Elo rating to Tokyo Yakult Swallows's 1467.3, a gap of 8.0 points.
These two have met 214 times in the data this model was trained on, with Chunichi Dragons winning 104 to Tokyo Yakult Swallows's 110.
Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from this season's actual game results -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.
Win Probability
Tokyo Yakult Swallows win: 46.0%
Chunichi Dragons win: 54.0%
Predicted winner: Chunichi Dragons
Total Runs
Over 6.5
Model confidence: 53.9%
Tokyo Yakult Swallows: Under 3.5 (55.5%) · Chunichi Dragons: Over 3.5 (54.3%)
Form & Streak
Tokyo Yakult Swallows: 39-44 this season, lost 2 straight
Chunichi Dragons: 38-47 this season, won 1 straight
Elo Rating
Tokyo Yakult Swallows: 1467.3 · Chunichi Dragons: 1475.6
Head-to-Head
Chunichi Dragons 104 – 110 Tokyo Yakult Swallows (214 meetings)
Prediction Insights
These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- baseball has very high inherent variance, and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.