Yokohama DeNA BayStars vs Hiroshima Toyo Carp

Match Context

Yokohama DeNA BayStars come into this game at 43-41, on a 1-game losing streak. Hiroshima Toyo Carp sit at 34-45, on a 1-game winning streak.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp carry a 1464.4 Elo rating to Yokohama DeNA BayStars's 1510.7, a gap of 46.0 points.

These two have met 216 times in the data this model was trained on, with Hiroshima Toyo Carp winning 106 to Yokohama DeNA BayStars's 110.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from this season's actual game results -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

Yokohama DeNA BayStars win: 51.3%

Hiroshima Toyo Carp win: 48.7%

Predicted winner: Yokohama DeNA BayStars

Total Runs

Under 7.5

Model confidence: 51.9%

Yokohama DeNA BayStars: Under 4.5 (56.4%) · Hiroshima Toyo Carp: Under 3.5 (53.0%)

Form & Streak

Yokohama DeNA BayStars: 43-41 this season, lost 1 straight

Hiroshima Toyo Carp: 34-45 this season, won 1 straight

Elo Rating

Yokohama DeNA BayStars: 1510.7 · Hiroshima Toyo Carp: 1464.4

Head-to-Head

Hiroshima Toyo Carp 106 – 110 Yokohama DeNA BayStars (216 meetings)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (Yokohama DeNA BayStars 51% / Hiroshima Toyo Carp 49%). Underdog Hiroshima Toyo Carp is live — winner markets are noisy in NPB; prefer totals or team runs.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars is favoured on team strength -- rated 46 Elo points higher based on results over recent seasons.

Yokohama DeNA BayStars leads the head-to-head series 110-106 across their last 216 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- baseball has very high inherent variance, and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.