Chunichi Dragons vs Hiroshima Toyo Carp

2026-07-31T18:00:00

Match Context

Chunichi Dragons come into this game at 38-47, on a 1-game winning streak. Hiroshima Toyo Carp sit at 33-44, on a 5-game losing streak.

Hiroshima Toyo Carp carry a 1463.8 Elo rating to Chunichi Dragons's 1475.6, a gap of 12.0 points.

These two have met 215 times in the data this model was trained on, with Hiroshima Toyo Carp winning 106 to Chunichi Dragons's 109.

Season records, streaks, Elo, and head-to-head are computed directly from this season's actual game results -- the same inputs the prediction model uses, not a separate estimate.

Win Probability

Chunichi Dragons win: 51.3%

Hiroshima Toyo Carp win: 48.7%

Predicted winner: Chunichi Dragons

Total Runs

Over 6.5

Model confidence: 52.9%

Chunichi Dragons: Over 3.5 (52.5%) · Hiroshima Toyo Carp: Under 3.5 (55.8%)

Form & Streak

Chunichi Dragons: 38-47 this season, won 1 straight

Hiroshima Toyo Carp: 33-44 this season, lost 5 straight

Elo Rating

Chunichi Dragons: 1475.6 · Hiroshima Toyo Carp: 1463.8

Head-to-Head

Hiroshima Toyo Carp 106 – 109 Chunichi Dragons (215 meetings)

Prediction Insights

This is a coin-flip moneyline (Chunichi Dragons 51% / Hiroshima Toyo Carp 49%). Underdog Hiroshima Toyo Carp is live — winner markets are noisy in NPB; prefer totals or team runs.

Chunichi Dragons leads the head-to-head series 109-106 across their last 215 meetings.

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes -- baseball has very high inherent variance, and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.