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Arsenal vs Leeds

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Arsenal win: 60.2%

Draw: 18.7%

Leeds win: 21.1%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.82

More corners: Arsenal (78.8% home / 21.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 72.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (60% vs next-best 21%). (60.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (56.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (79.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (73.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.