← Back to fixtures

Aston Villa vs Coventry

Sat 24 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 33 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Aston Villa win: 47.3%

Draw: 23.9%

Coventry win: 28.9%

Predicted: Aston Villa

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.2%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 51.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.83

More corners: Aston Villa (57.8% home / 42.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Aston Villa

Yes

Probability Aston Villa wins or draws: 77.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Aston Villa Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 29%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Favorite Avoids Defeat Aston Villa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (78.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.