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Aston Villa vs Nott'm Forest

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Aston Villa win: 46.5%

Draw: 23.9%

Nott'm Forest win: 29.6%

Predicted: Aston Villa

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 66.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.71

More corners: Aston Villa (60.2% home / 39.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Aston Villa

Yes

Probability Aston Villa wins or draws: 71.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Aston Villa Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 30%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (66.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Corners Aston Villa (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Aston Villa win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.