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Bournemouth vs Brentford

Sat 12 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bournemouth win: 51.8%

Draw: 20.1%

Brentford win: 28.1%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 67.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.89

More corners: Bournemouth (70.4% home / 29.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 68.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bournemouth Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 28%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Corners Bournemouth (more corners) (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.