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Bournemouth vs Brighton

Wed 02 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bournemouth win: 38.0%

Draw: 26.2%

Brighton win: 35.9%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.5%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.0

More corners: Bournemouth (54.9% home / 45.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 71.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (38.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.