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Bournemouth vs Chelsea

Sun 23 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 37 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bournemouth win: 43.6%

Draw: 27.1%

Chelsea win: 29.2%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.95

More corners: Bournemouth (58.3% home / 41.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 64.4%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bournemouth Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 29%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Bournemouth (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.