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Bournemouth vs Coventry

Sat 19 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 16 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Bournemouth win: 47.4%

Draw: 24.8%

Coventry win: 27.8%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 56.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.66

More corners: Bournemouth (62.2% home / 37.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 74.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bournemouth Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 28%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (56.0% model probability) High

Corners Bournemouth (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (74.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.