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Bournemouth vs Crystal Palace

Sat 20 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bournemouth win: 54.9%

Draw: 22.3%

Crystal Palace win: 22.8%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.2

More corners: Bournemouth (71.1% home / 28.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 70.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bournemouth Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 23%). (55.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (61.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Bournemouth (more corners) (71.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.