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Bournemouth vs Sunderland

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Bournemouth win: 49.3%

Draw: 25.3%

Sunderland win: 25.4%

Predicted: Bournemouth

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.4%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.31

More corners: Bournemouth (62.5% home / 37.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 69.1%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Bournemouth Clearest lean of the available outcomes (49% vs next-best 25%). (49.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Bournemouth (more corners) (62.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (69.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.