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Brentford vs Arsenal

Wed 02 Dec 2026, 20:00 UTC · Round 13 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brentford win: 20.7%

Draw: 23.1%

Arsenal win: 56.3%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 68.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 71.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.42

More corners: Arsenal (26.9% home / 73.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 87.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (56% vs next-best 23%). (56.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (69.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (71.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (73.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (88.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.