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Brentford vs Brighton

Sat 16 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 21 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brentford win: 31.8%

Draw: 26.0%

Brighton win: 42.2%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 60.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.36

More corners: Brighton (44.4% home / 55.6% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 78.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (42% vs next-best 32%). (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (60.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (79.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.