← Back to fixtures

Brentford vs Leeds

Sat 17 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 32 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brentford win: 51.1%

Draw: 21.0%

Leeds win: 27.9%

Predicted: Brentford

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 62.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.86

More corners: Brentford (54.8% home / 45.2% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brentford

Yes

Probability Brentford wins or draws: 69.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brentford Clearest lean of the available outcomes (51% vs next-best 28%). (51.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brentford win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (70.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.