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Brentford vs Liverpool

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brentford win: 29.2%

Draw: 22.5%

Liverpool win: 48.2%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 68.0%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 72.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.27

More corners: Liverpool (40.2% home / 59.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 83.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Liverpool Clearest lean of the available outcomes (48% vs next-best 29%). (48.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (68.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (73.0% model probability) High

Corners Liverpool (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (83.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.