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Brentford vs Tottenham

Sat 22 Aug 2026, 16:30 UTC · Round 1 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brentford win: 39.5%

Draw: 24.9%

Tottenham win: 35.6%

Predicted: Brentford

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 63.4%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 70.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.14

More corners: Tottenham (49.0% home / 51.0% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brentford

Yes

Probability Brentford wins or draws: 77.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (63.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (71.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brentford win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (77.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.