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Brighton vs Crystal Palace

Sat 17 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 7 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brighton win: 55.1%

Draw: 20.9%

Crystal Palace win: 24.0%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.7%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 58.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.08

More corners: Brighton (72.3% home / 27.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 66.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (55% vs next-best 24%). (55.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Brighton (more corners) (72.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.