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Brighton vs Everton

Sat 12 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 15 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brighton win: 52.7%

Draw: 20.6%

Everton win: 26.7%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.43

More corners: Brighton (71.1% home / 28.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 65.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (53% vs next-best 27%). (53.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Brighton (more corners) (71.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.