← Back to fixtures

Brighton vs Fulham

Wed 03 Mar 2027, 20:00 UTC · Round 28 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brighton win: 43.5%

Draw: 26.9%

Fulham win: 29.6%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 53.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.86

More corners: Brighton (59.1% home / 40.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 67.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (44% vs next-best 30%). (44.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Brighton (more corners) (59.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.