← Back to fixtures

Brighton vs Nott'm Forest

Sat 01 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 34 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brighton win: 47.4%

Draw: 22.7%

Nott'm Forest win: 29.9%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 57.8%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 65.0%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.61

More corners: Brighton (66.7% home / 33.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 66.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (47% vs next-best 30%). (47.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Brighton (more corners) (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.