← Back to fixtures

Brighton vs Tottenham

Sat 20 Feb 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 26 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Brighton win: 41.2%

Draw: 24.1%

Tottenham win: 34.8%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 52.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.79

More corners: Brighton (59.9% home / 40.1% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 74.6%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (41.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Corners Brighton (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (75.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.