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Chelsea vs Bournemouth

Sat 10 Oct 2026, 14:00 UTC · Round 6 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Chelsea win: 45.3%

Draw: 22.4%

Bournemouth win: 32.3%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.6%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 62.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.05

More corners: Chelsea (58.1% home / 41.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Bournemouth

Yes

Probability Bournemouth wins or draws: 60.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Chelsea Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 32%). (45.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Bournemouth win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (60.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.