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Chelsea vs Everton

Sat 15 May 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 36 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Chelsea win: 53.6%

Draw: 21.6%

Everton win: 24.8%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 56.9%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.3

More corners: Chelsea (69.5% home / 30.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 66.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Chelsea Clearest lean of the available outcomes (54% vs next-best 25%). (54.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (57.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (61.0% model probability) High

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (70.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (67.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.