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Chelsea vs Fulham

Sat 10 Apr 2027, 14:00 UTC · Round 31 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Chelsea win: 44.9%

Draw: 27.7%

Fulham win: 27.3%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 59.1%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 59.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.97

More corners: Chelsea (60.2% home / 39.8% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 64.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Chelsea Clearest lean of the available outcomes (45% vs next-best 28%). (45.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (59.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (65.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.