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Chelsea vs Leeds

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Chelsea win: 52.4%

Draw: 21.0%

Leeds win: 26.6%

Predicted: Chelsea

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.3%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 60.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.59

More corners: Chelsea (71.5% home / 28.5% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Chelsea

Yes

Probability Chelsea wins or draws: 61.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Chelsea Clearest lean of the available outcomes (52% vs next-best 27%). (52.0% model probability) Medium

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (60.0% model probability) High

Corners Chelsea (more corners) (72.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Chelsea win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.