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Chelsea vs Liverpool

Sat 05 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 14 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Chelsea win: 37.8%

Draw: 23.1%

Liverpool win: 39.2%

Predicted: Liverpool

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 61.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 66.6%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.77

More corners: Chelsea (50.6% home / 49.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Liverpool

Yes

Probability Liverpool wins or draws: 62.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (39.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (62.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (67.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Liverpool win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (62.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.