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Coventry vs Brighton

Sun 13 Sep 2026, 13:00 UTC · Round 4 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Coventry win: 25.4%

Draw: 28.9%

Brighton win: 45.7%

Predicted: Brighton

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 46.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 42.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.07

More corners: Brighton (47.7% home / 52.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brighton

Yes

Probability Brighton wins or draws: 71.2%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Brighton Clearest lean of the available outcomes (46% vs next-best 29%). (46.0% model probability) Medium

Total Goals Under 2.5 (58.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brighton win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (71.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.