← Back to fixtures

Coventry vs Crystal Palace

Sat 21 Nov 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 11 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Coventry win: 40.5%

Draw: 28.9%

Crystal Palace win: 30.6%

Predicted: Coventry

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 50.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 33.8%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.33

More corners: Coventry (56.3% home / 43.7% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Crystal Palace

Yes

Probability Crystal Palace wins or draws: 64.0%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Coventry Clearest lean of the available outcomes (40% vs next-best 31%). (40.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (66.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Crystal Palace win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (64.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.