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Coventry vs Leeds

Sat 30 Jan 2027, 15:00 UTC · Round 23 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Coventry win: 40.4%

Draw: 26.8%

Leeds win: 32.8%

Predicted: Coventry

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 54.3%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 40.9%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.5

More corners: Coventry (59.6% home / 40.4% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Leeds

Yes

Probability Leeds wins or draws: 66.3%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (40.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (59.0% model probability) High

Corners Coventry (more corners) (60.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Leeds win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (66.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.