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Coventry vs Sunderland

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 9 · Data confidence: Low (promoted/new team)

Match Result (1X2)

Coventry win: 32.2%

Draw: 32.0%

Sunderland win: 35.8%

Predicted: Sunderland

Both Teams to Score

Probability of Yes: 45.4%

Total Goals

Under 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 32.1%

Corners

Expected total corners: 11.02

More corners: Coventry (52.1% home / 47.9% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Sunderland

Yes

Probability Sunderland wins or draws: 67.8%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (36.0% model probability) Low

Total Goals Under 2.5 (68.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Sunderland win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (68.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.