← Back to fixtures

Crystal Palace vs Arsenal

Sat 26 Dec 2026, 15:00 UTC · Round 17 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 16.4%

Draw: 19.2%

Arsenal win: 64.3%

Predicted: Arsenal

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 64.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 64.7%

Corners

Expected total corners: 9.96

More corners: Arsenal (25.7% home / 74.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Arsenal

Yes

Probability Arsenal wins or draws: 86.9%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result Arsenal Clearest lean of the available outcomes (64% vs next-best 19%). (64.0% model probability) High

Both Teams to Score Yes (64.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (65.0% model probability) High

Corners Arsenal (more corners) (74.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Arsenal win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (87.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.