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Crystal Palace vs Brentford

Wed 10 Feb 2027, 20:00 UTC · Round 25 · Data confidence: OK

Match Result (1X2)

Crystal Palace win: 35.3%

Draw: 22.5%

Brentford win: 42.1%

Predicted: Brentford

Both Teams to Score

Yes

Probability of Yes: 58.5%

Total Goals

Over 2.5

Probability of Over 2.5: 63.3%

Corners

Expected total corners: 10.83

More corners: Brentford (48.7% home / 51.3% away)

Favorite Avoids Defeat

Favorite: Brentford

Yes

Probability Brentford wins or draws: 71.7%

Higher base-rate market — favourites historically avoid defeat ~75.6% of the time regardless of any model, so treat this probability as a fine-tuned adjustment around that baseline, not as a standalone insight. See Model Info for the honest accuracy-vs-baseline breakdown.

Prediction Insights

Match Result No strong lean Outcomes are close together -- the model doesn't see a clear favourite. (42.0% model probability) Low

Both Teams to Score Yes (58.0% model probability) High

Total Goals Over 2.5 (63.0% model probability) High

Favorite Avoids Defeat Brentford win or draw Higher base-rate market: favourites in this league lose outright only ~25-30% of the time. (72.0% model probability) High

These are model-derived probability leans, not guaranteed outcomes — football has high inherent variance and even well-calibrated models miss regularly. For research/ educational use only; this is not betting advice.